Global Market

 

Global Market Overview

• Asia-Pacific Equities rose modestly as investors awaited the U.S. payrolls report and evaluated a possible U.S. tax-and-spend bill. The MSCI Asia‑Pacific index (ex‑Japan) gained around 0.2%, though Hong Kong’s Hang Seng dropped 0.6% following weaker Chinese services data thetimes.co.uk+2reuters.com+2reuters.com+2.

• U.S. Futures & Equities: The S&P 500 hit fresh highs driven by a preliminary trade deal with Vietnam. Sectors like apparel (Nike +4.1%), tech (Oracle +5%), and electric vehicles (Tesla +5%) led the rally investors.com.

• Fed Policy Watch: Cooling labor figures, including a 33,000 drop in private payrolls per ADP, have strengthened calls for a Federal Reserve rate cut in July marketwatch.com. Market participants are now preparing for policy shifts and volatility ahead.

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🏦 Central Bank & Policy Updates

• Fed Chair Powell received backing from global central bankers amid pressure from U.S. political leaders for looser monetary policy. Powell remains committed to data-driven decisions despite political opposition indiatimes.com+7lgt.com+7reuters.com+7barrons.com.

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🔀 Trade & Geopolitical Developments

• Tariff Watch: An upcoming U.S.–EU tariff deadline (July 9) and potential U.S.–China deal (August 12) are creating market jitter. Investors anticipate volatility in currency, gold, and Treasury markets depending on outcomes reuters.com.

• Global Trade Deals: Agreements with the U.K. and Vietnam are in place. Negotiations with China and India continue, reinforcing a pattern of delayed tariff implementations ft.com.

• Middle East Tensions: Rising concerns around Iran’s threat to disrupt Hormuz Strait oil flows are impacting global crude and LNG markets en.wikipedia.org.

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🛢 Commodities & Currency Movements

• Oil & Gold: Oil eased slightly after Iran halted cooperation with the IAEA, and gold fell ~0.4% to $3,342/oz reuters.com. Gold continues to serve as a hedge amid escalating geopolitical tensions and potential trade deal volatility ft.com+2reuters.com+2investors.com+2.

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📡 Corporate & Sector Highlights

• Tesla reported a 13% YoY drop in Q2 global sales to 384,122 vehicles—though outperforming forecasts, shares rose amid ongoing robotaxi and self-driving initiatives apnews.com+1investors.com+1.

• Microsoft announced layoffs of over 9,000 employees (4% of its workforce) to streamline AI operations, with mild stock market impact indiatimes.com.

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🔭 Market Outlook

• Second Half of 2025: Despite earlier volatility from tariff announcements, equity markets remained resilient—S&P 500 is up ~10% in Q2. However, further upside may depend on trade resolution by July 9 and macroeconomic data investopedia.com.

• Debt & Bond Markets: RBI is tipped to pause rate hikes until 2027, with potential cuts later this year. Domestic bond yields are expected to remain range-bound .

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⏰ What to Watch This Week

• U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls (July) – key for Fed rate decision

• July 9 U.S.–EU Tariff Deadline

• French Budget Vote (July 14) – could influence Eurobond markets

• U.S.–China Trade Negotiations by August 12

• Upcoming Q1 FY26 Earnings – especially for consumption-related sectors moneycontrol.com+15reuters.com+15marketwatch.com+15cafemutual.com